By P. Arestis, G. Zezza
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Extra info for Advances in Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics
E. ), The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan, 1987, vol. XIV. M. E. ), The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, London: Macmillan, 1973, vol. VIII. G. I. Plosser (1984) ‘Money, Credit and Prices in a Real Business Cycle’, American Economic Review, 74, 363–80. W. (1984) ‘Macro Effects of Interest-Sensitive Aggregate Supply’, Journal of Macroeconomics, 6, 43–56. Morelli, P. B. Pittaluga (1997) ‘Le sofferenze bancarie: tendenze e previsione’. Mimeo, Centro di Economia Monetaria e Finanziaria “Paolo Baffi” ’, Milan.
While NKPC are usually written as πt = f (Et πt+1 ), we can make the hypothesis that πt = f (Et−1 πt+1 ). We build this new forecast series by imposing coefficient of current variable in the 6-VAR and in the AR process to be equal to zero. 3 Endogeneity bias Another improvement of the basic NKPC estimates is to wonder if the current driving variable creates some endogeneity bias. To overlook a fallacy in estimating NKPC with standard OLS techniques, one might prefer estimate a simultaneous equation as proposed by Bardsen, Jansen and Nymoen (2002): πt = f (Et πt+1 , yt ) + ut yt = a0 yt−1 + a1 πt−1 + vt The first equation represents the NKPC and the second is an IS curve.
This modification seems to improve the Calvo specification with the 6-VAR, confirming the results of Galí and Gertler (1999), but it does not provide significant results for the Taylor specification. The use of marginal cost is not a guarantee of empirical success for the NKPC. Row 2 gives the result of the NKPC with lagged expectations. Concerning the Taylor specification, the coefficients are significant. The general conclusion of the previous section remains verified: the φ coefficient is not different from 0 with the most sophisticated expectation, while it appears positive under simpler forecasts.
Advances in Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics by P. Arestis, G. Zezza